Year 2000 E-Commerce Predictions
ECMgt.com brought to you by ECnow.com
Your Link to Worldwide E-Commerce Developments
January 1, 2000 *3,000 subscribers*
Volume 2, Issue 1
ECMgt.com Online: http://ECMgt.com
View this Issue: http://ecmgt.com/Jan2000
Print this Issue: http://ecmgt.com/Jan2000/full.issue.for.printing.htm
ECnow.com 2000 trends: Year 2000 E-Commerce Predictions
Predictions From Our Readers
bulletin board allows readers to comment on trends and issues throughout the month.
Please stop by to add your comments and see all the responses at http://ecmgt.com/bulletinboard.htm
of the Month
The topic for January focuses on e-commerce predictions
Selected Answers of the Month
confidence in buying online will continue to grow. Despite the fact that credit card fraud online is not higher
then credit card fraud in the physical world (according to a study by VISA it
is 1% of all transactions), consumers in the 90's were still cautious about on-line
purchases. The same way telephone
ordering became more common in the 90's, on-line purchasing for the average consumer
will become more common in 2000.
will become more internationally accepted.
While currently 85% of all websites are hosted in the US and 75% of e-commerce
is conducted in America, particularly Europe is going to increase its involvement
in e-commerce. By 2003 about 50%
of all on-line transactions will be conducted outside the United States.
vendors will continue to collaborate (through mergers and partnerships) to provide
businesses with complete e-commerce solutions.
Business will no longer have to purchase elements of an e-commerce solution
(sales, marketing, procurement, etc.) separately and go through the painful task
of making it work together, start-to-end complete solutions will become the norm.
This will allow more small-to-medium size businesses without extensive
IT resources to participate in e-commerce.
methods such as "Cybercash" will go away.
This ties into the previously made point on consumer confidence.
There is no need for these alternative methods of payment as consumers
trust to use their credit cards over the web.
Credit Card companies will increase fraud protection, thereby eliminating
the need for payment methods with increased protections such as Cybercash.
Santa Cruz, California, USA)
predict (brow furrowed, fingers at the temple) that some nationwide retailers,
both broadly and narrowly focused, will learn to do it right on the web.
I also predict that that some large
retailers who cannot figure it out will have some spectacular and costly failures
- BN for example.
San Jose, California, USA)
Servers morph form pluming to Specialized Java Enterprise Edition/XML etc servers.
i.e. the emergence of the application server farm concept
Tracy, California USA)
will also take a place in the developing world
issue of banking transactions will be the hot issue
/ Export debate on the net will be the hot issue in 2000
it will become significant and will take a place in career choosing
continues to expand
become clear that E-commerce will be dominated by 'old' major player's - especially
in manufacturing, for instance Fords & GMs new purchasing portals and SAPs
mySAP portal - and that 'new' player's - like eBay and eLoan - will disappear
Digital TV will have defining impact
on retail eCommerce - as banks, supermarkets, travel bureaus will prefer this
distribution channel due to user-friendliness and limited competition - this is
especially happening in UK and France
St. Paul, Minneapolis, USA)
on use of e-commerce applications such as B2C and B-to-B (in Singapore).
countries outside Singapore, unless there is government support in similar Electronic
Transaction Act or Bill as in Singapore, B-to-B will not see an immediate surge
compared to Singapore.
refinement of present legal bills guiding the use of e-commerce.
commercialization and software war among e-commerce software developers.
credit card payment
(R.H., Bochum, GERMANY)
Source in e-commerce
solving the bandwidth problem, merge of new hardware for Internet access: cellular
phone, pager etc
customer oriented sites
(Source: S.W., Sunnyvale,
will become more comfortable with sending proprietary information on-line
will not be able to disconnect because of the introduction of smaller and smaller
office tools (phones, Palm Pilots, other unknowns)
will be shopping kiosks located in bus stations, train depots and airports. These
kiosks will house subscriber sites and pertain to specific audiences. What better
way to spend a lay over in an airport!!!
San Jose, California, USA)
will see widespread behavioral shifts on the B-to-B e-commerce side. Because of
the efficiencies within B-to-B e-commerce, you will see more and more activity
(read: liquidity) on B-to-B exchanges and auctions.
Net market makers with requisite and appropriate vertical expertise
will see an increase in activity as we approach the inflection point of B-to-B
e-commerce adoption which will occur in 2000.
inflection point will occur next year because of the increased enabling infrastructure
and the adoption of the Internet as a more efficient business tool. Once this
inflection point is reached, the successful exchanges/platforms will see a period
of hyper-growth in their space. In our business, we have already seen this behavioral
shift as we watch traders move their long-term commodity contracts into forwards
within the CheMatch.com spot market exchange.
Stamford, CT, USA)
The next e-commerce trend will center on non-web centric approaches
to e-commerce. As Internet and web commerce matures, a demographic and marketing
shift will occur. Internet "pioneers", the first to work and shop the
web, will be followed by less technically oriented "settlers". The next
wave of e-commerce solutions will need to cater to this more traditional audience
- people with disposable income and no particular interest in technology. They
will demand a more convenient and orderly way to shop electronically, free from
the frenzy of an overcrowded "dot com" marketplace. E-commerce will
evolve to include a mix of old and new media technologies. New digital channels
and more refined marketing tools will emerge to facilitate successful selling
in the virtual world.
Let's face it.
We're all feeling a little overwhelmed by dot.com mania and all the "Yahoo
and Amazon want-a-bees." There
will be a shakedown in cyberspace. Not
every digital "Tom, Dick and Harry" have the marketing budgets to support
the advertising needed to raise awareness and drive traffic to a site... The one
constant in the swirl of real and virtual boomtowns is that they never survive.
They either go bust or they become normal, sane an orderly hometowns.
I sense that the Internet phenomenon is fast approaching the end of its
boomtown days. And that will have a dramatic impact on not just current marketing
but on the long-term brand proposition of Web-based businesses."
Napa Valley, California, USA)
(J.E., Dallas, Texas, USA)
Lake Ariel, Pa. Wayne co., USA)
financial management/banking will become more important
cash will start to make some noise
will splinter into smaller entities in an attempt to become profitable (ie., control
(R.R, Mountain View, California USA)
Supply chain management will
progress to the point where all interaction with customers can be done electronically.
The lack of bandwidth will be addressed
by network providers in an effort to provide quality of service to customers.
Johannesburg, SOUTH AFRICA)
(S.Y., Santa Clara, California, USA)
(A.S., St. Louis, Missouri, USA)
Consolidation / Acquisitions
of heavily traveled sites by larger sites and media companies
start of a new kind of money. Electronic dead presidents (dollars) from 3rd party
integration with back office systems. The companies that survive will be those
that provide complete logistic solutions such as order tracking.
San Carlos, California, USA)
of portal technology
San Jose, California, USA)
growing of e-business, not only e-commerce. I mean companies will be implementing
a lot of extranets for purchasing, like a business chain.
changing of the e-consumer behavior
new dimension of the wired workforce
of business intelligence implementations
São Paulo, BRAZIL)
will continue to be the most fertile ground for e-commerce growth.
will seek to expand their brands via relationships with more traditional retailers.
Investors will begin to punish
dot.coms who are not making significant inroads toward profitability.
Competition will continue to
be fierce, with the battle ground being site functionality, price, service, and
(M.S., Minneapolis, Minnesota,
Chicago, Illinois, USA)
will "become" involved
to Business e-commerce will grow substantially
San Jose, California, USA)
will be several new uses of the Internet that most of us will look at and say
"oh yeah, I thought about that but didn't really have the time to get involved
Biz to Biz...As E-Commerce
gets fine-tuned the "business to business" side of things will move
from bulk transfers of virtual stuff to more partnering and integration across
organizational lines. This will be a natural and relatively predictable transition.
Funded by the stakeholders, it will not require an "acceptance quota"
to the same degree as the retail side does.
me for me...In 2000 I see the focus on appliance and convenience increasing as
the Internet becomes a means to achieve leisure time and convenience. The best
example may be the on-line grocery store. Once they figure out how much more expedient
and cost effective it would be to have the groceries waiting in front of the store
rather than delivered to your house, there will be a whole new adventure. Imagine
pulling up to a strip mall and not having to park! Just go to the drive through
E-Com site and load up the purchases you ordered on-line before you left the office.
A dozen eggs, 16" X 20" filters for the furnace, a box of crayons, and
a choke collar (now, now it's for the dog). Make that a one-stop deal and people
will pay for it. This type of example is becoming more obvious and will most likely
drive some type of consolidation or partnering among retailers to invent a new
the applications side I see a web-based customer profiling system for repeat customers
to expedite ordering and increase familiarity.
(R.R., Santa Clara, California, USA)
Top trends will be in advertising.
policies and flight tickets will be sold more often via Internet.
EU Department, The Istanbul Chamber of Commerce, TURKEY)
e-commerce continues to steal the spotlight on B-to-C e-commerce.
In order to capture major players
within vertical industries B-to-B e-commerce solutions will have to evolve from
a typical open auction/ exchange platform to a trading place with more options
for how one buys and sells on a system.
B-to-B is the e-commerce industry with most innovation and growth.
An increased speed in the flow of
data for e-commerce thanks to gains in XML technology. Eventually leading
to bi-directional transfer of data, meaning moving data from its legacy (corporate
database) to another source (hand held device) where it is manipulated,
and then it can be put back into the original database, rather than just a one
way data dump.
(Source: I.B., Herndon, Virginia,
e-commerce! . you need e-business. E-Commerce evokes the notion of buying and
selling. But your business is more than that. It is marketing and advertising.
It is human resources. It is planning and strategy. It is accounting and administration.
Keep Your Eye On XML and PHP - EDI
is not dead and gone..it has just assumed a new set of letters: XML. One of the
best sources of XML information: www.oasis-open.org/cover
will soon to be as big as Active Server Pages. PHP is one more way to customize
your message to the particular person visiting.
As Colleges and Universities Begin to Offer E-Business Degrees. Only those graduates
educated and equipped to deal with lightning fast change as the norm are going
(F.S., Scranton, Pennsylvania, USA)
of Internet technology in corporate purchasing departments
of numerous B-to-C companies
technologies in the realm of virtual shopping (virtual tours, virtual fitting,
(Source: J.S., Sunnyvale, California, USA)
There would be both a qualitative and quantitative shift of the
service industries (Transportation, mail, warehousing, logistics, bulk terminals)
ability towards adapting and implementing change at a rate never dreamt of before.
Mumbai, Maharastra, INDIA)
(A.S., Herndon, Virginia, USA)
1st quarter of 2000 will be the prime time of e-commerce. After which some new
things would be developed, which makes "E-Commerce" less prominent!!
A more professional way of promoting
e-commerce sites will be available
amazing number of people will utilize e-commerce sites
Copyright © 1999-2009 by ECnow.com,
Inc., All rights reserved
Creek Blvd., Suite 205
Cupertino, CA 95014
to the main ECMgt.com Site: (http://ECMgt.com)
Back to this