Year 2000 E-Commerce Predictions
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January 1, 2000 *3,000 subscribers*
Volume 2, Issue 1
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ECnow.com 2000 trends: Year 2000 E-Commerce Predictions
Predictions From Key E-Commerce Luminaries
bulletin board allows readers to comment on trends and issues throughout the month.
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of the Month
The topic for January focuses on e-commerce predictions
for 2000. We've asked a number of e-commerce luminaries to respond.
Answers of the Month
to Business E-Commerce will proliferate more widely (according to Catalog Age,
out of the top 40% of companies on the Web, B-to-B customers already account for
73% of the revenue)
businesses will bypass distributors and go consumer direct and make use of E-Commerce
to do so. (according to Peppers and Rogers Group, consumer direct (all, not just
Internet generated) will be a $1.1 trillion business in 2010, up from $190 billion
will consider outsourcing the order fulfillment function after finding that they
were ill-equipped to handle e-Christmas 1999
in Internet-based financial services industry (including EBPP, insurance, banking)
Small-to-medium sized enterprises
will rapidly adopt E-Commerce channels for procurement and sales
pricing models (auctions etc.) will continue to prevail and proliferate
Legal experts will continue to find
existing laws to be antiquated for use with and for business models spawned by
Adoption of the
ASP (application service provider) model for software distribution
and Mortar" companies will gain strength in 2000 by leveraging their strong brands,
deep pockets and established infrastructures
will boom in Europe and Asia (more than 60 million Europeans will be online)
Mark Rhoney, President, ec.UPS.com
M&A marketplace will accelerate - great companies sprinting
but they won't reach their goal
Confusion on platforms
and standards (who is your e-commerce partner) - lack of a network effect
Continuing lack of clarity of standardized data of e-business
products (e-commerce will be hampered by it) cleaning and maintaining data will
continue to be a problem
Corporate denial of e-commerce
will end (talking the talk, not walking the walk)
Continue to see an unbelievable migration of high-level executives
from Fortune 2000 companies to dot.com companies which will fuel #1
Mark Walsh, President and CEO, Verticalnet.com
Exchanges Get Real
of the Brick-and-Mortar
services on the Web
Chris Davis, VP, Consulting & Systems Integration, CSC
Source: Zor Gorelove, Founder and CEO, Buzzcompany.com
market spaces will grow very fast
B-B market places will learn and happily borrow from the current B-C best practices
Application syndication across the
Internet (through XML integration) millions of applications with seemly integration
(Ariba.com, Commerceone.com, Isyndicate.com, etc.)
Web integrators will become critical to B-to-B marketplaces since every aspect
of the enterprise needs to be touched (from catalog, to ERP to Web)
will increase visibility and gain/acquire key customers
Dinosaurs Start Getting Their Act Together - The year of awakening for the traditional
incumbents: at least with respect to B2C, wills the consecration of the cyber-physical
business model. Companies with assets like stores, distribution networks, and
even public kiosks will find they can win long-term against virtual-only players.
They can project their brand, acquire customers, and fulfill orders more cheaply
and effectively through their physical assets, while using the power of the Web
to sustain customer relationships and grow share of wallet.
The market will start to appreciate the "last mover advantage"
and the ability of traditional players to learn lessons at the expense of the
earlier pure-play pioneers.
Advent of ESPs - A proliferation of B-to-B electronic markets will result in the
emergence of eMarket Service Providers (ESPs).
ESPs will start to provide a one-stop source of technology, application
hosting and process management for electronic markets. As the world economy rapidly
evolves into a web of networks, Internet-based organizations are being formed
at breakneck speeds to accommodate this revolution. These organizations demand
the most cost-effective and timely solutions to support their online transactional
needs. Providing the backbone for e-markets, ESPs will reduce organizations' upfront
costs, increases operational efficiency and radically reduces the time-to-market
for new electronic markets.
Rapid Blurring Between B-to-B and B2C - Distinctions between B-to-B and B2C will
continue to blur - companies will realize that this is a ridiculous distinction
and that B-to-B can learn a lot from B2C and vice versa.
The real distinction will be Person to Person, Person to Machine, and Machine
to Machine interactions. This is
where the true differences will emerge.
Proliferation of Wireless eBusiness - The explosion of mobile data will be the
big news of 2000 -- following the dramatic growth in Japan of email via cellular
phones (2 million users, 9 months after launch). Both in Europe with GSM and in
the US with PCS-type systems this application is set to boom. Especially because
(arguably) Europe but certainly the US have far more sophisticated eCommerce players
than those present in Japan, and mobile data usage will therefore leap beyond
basic email capabilities.
Source: Narry Singh, Partner,
The McKenna Group
perception that e-business will hit like a tidal wave in Y2k
telecommuting, mobile workers
as a fundamental building block for e-business interoperability
inter-organizational virtual enterprises
e-business/e-commerce Web servers - one per person or processor
of ERP systems with lighter more dynamic web-based applications
competitive pricing using wireless access and shop-bots by consumer
failure of the shipping industry to account for growth in e-commerce
and handheld technologies incorporated in line of business processes
Dr. Gregory Alan Bolcer, CEO/Founder, Endeavors Technology
and logistics become top concerns and competitive advantages for those who do
further melding of online and offline marketing/sales so that one complements
the other and both are channels for the parent company, rather than separate entities.
consolidation of one-service-only online businesses into full-service sites, raising
the entrance barrier for newcomers.
vendors of online technologies will turn more to selling their software as products,
rather than building online services around the products.
will be a major breach of privacy that catalyzes the public into being more concerned
about giving personal data in exchange for online services, free or not.
Gay Slesinger, Principal, iMarket Strategies
will continue to be a driving force for e-commerce.
manifestation of this community movement will be the evolution of portals into
net market makers and BRANDING will take on a new significance.
The building, establishing, and defending of brands on the Net will be
a very hot topic in 2000.
will continue to grow in importance. There
will be continued confusion over privacy vs. security.
Legislation will be proposed but not passed in 2000.
will continue to dominate the news. No
matter what the legal outcome, their stock will continue to rise -- either as
a single company or a conglomerate of smaller baby-Bills.
(Judge Greene rules from the grave).
strong economy will drive the NASDAQ to even greater highs - over 5000 by year-end!
Stacey Bressler, E-Commerce Strategy and Marketing Consultant
Biz to biz continues to take the lead
companies (non-tech) begin leveraging Internet commerce in a significant way
will become relegated to a small % of overall commerce transactions.
Todd Elizalde, Director, Internet Commerce & Customer Advocacy, Cisco Systems
Much faster Internet access, maybe 100 times faster
than today's speed plus new business applications designed to work with the faster
Internet rather than with the dial-up speeds currently being used
greater emphasis on "B-to-B" e-commerce vs. consumer e-commerce
of traditional sales channels
Growth of sites
that offer intelligent surfing so the customer can quickly "home in"
on specifically what he is looking for
momentum. Our society has discovered
the Internet and we are fast moving toward doing the major part of our commerce
through the Internet
Source: Bill McLain, Webmaster,
higher quest for value creation
B-to-B space will be further segmented. Horizontal models such as VerticalNet
will fight with super-deep verticals for domain-court advantage.
domination of the major companies in the B2C space will continue in 2000. The
amount of investment required to displace first-movers will increase dramatically
and ultimately will only be accomplished by large cap business or through roll-ups.
Peter M.Ostrow, President and CEO, TestMart
- Much more concern about privacy - including privacy issues with respect to
both data gathered off-web-site (ie, by software) or by merging of data from web-site
with off-line data acquired by other means.
issues will heat up.
will be an issue - on several fronts; tax, electronic signatures and documents,
privacy, spam, etc.
Kaye Caldwell, President and Policy Director, Silicon Valley Software Industry
People will prefer to enter their personal information (including credit card,
name, address, etc.) once."
Bahar Gidwani, CEO, indexstock.com
trading exchanges or vertical marketplaces will be the story.
I just came back from an the NetMarketMaker event where 800 people attended.
It was amazing, on-line marketplaces for things like chicken, eggs and
Sell side e-commerce will explode with regards to Channel Management. Vendors
like Click Interactive will excel by Web enabling complex distribution channels.
Scott Latham, AMR Research, Senior Analyst, E-Business
2000 I'd like to think it is broad band (big pipes into home and business), but
I am afraid that we could be looking at another decade of "the year of the
LAN." If it does happen, then
we're looking at rich multimedia coming on the heels of MP3 as the next revolution.
Virtual conferencing is already taking off. All it needs to become a routine part of the home life and
business practice is real time two way video.
Will that happen in 2K? Probably
not. But transmission of full motion
video might, and that is the last step before real time interactive video.
We're already closer than many realize.
Brad Peppard, Marketing Consultant
Steve Broback, President, Thunder Lizard Productions
Steve Larsen, Senior Vice President, Net Perceptions
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