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Wireless Internet Now!
Transcribed talk by Philippe Kahn

The March meeting of the International SIG had a special guest speaker: Philippe Kahn, whose credits include CEO of Starfish Software, Chairman of LightSurf and OpenGrid, founder of Borland International, and more. Philippe had the audience hanging on his every word as he described his vision of the future of the wireless market, and he peppered the talk with colorful descriptions and scenarios that everyone could relate to.

Philippe opened by pointing out that 5 years ago, there was no interest in wireless Internet devices, but interest is now building. He sees wireless Internet as the next step in a natural evolution.

10 years ago, office work was a Dilbert cartoon: you'd sit in your cubicle making entries into your word processor and spreadsheet, and pretend that you were being productive. The PC kept you chained to your cubicle, and you really had no view beyond it. The advent of e-mail opened things up a bit; you could get some contact with people outside your buildings, if your messages didn't get trapped at the firewall. But once a browser came in, it changed the dynamics entirely by providing a limitless window to the outside world.

Skirting the firewall was an important liberating step. Browser-based e-mail allowed people to bypass the corporate e-mail system and send anything to anyone. AOL broke into the corporate domain by supporting TCP/IP addressing, which allowed it to get past the firewalls without being rejected. This is one key reason this struggling little startup was able to grow fast enough to be able to swallow a media giant like Time-Warner. (Hint to dot.coms: don't be too eager to show a profit, because from then on your performance can and will be measured!)

The web helped make prisoners of the cubicle feel more liberated. Now the Dilbert model was modified: you'd pretend to do your word processing and spreadsheets while managing stocks, shopping on Amazon, and trading on eBay. There was little fear of being fired for it, because your boss was doing it too, and even coming to you for advice on how to use the web!

The Internet has certainly fostered some interesting business models. Philippe talked about going into the Safeway at 2 a.m. (when all the employees of startups buy their groceries) and pondering the ad on the bar that separated his order from another on the conveyor belt. If you can get free e-mail or free Internet access just for putting up with banner ads, perhaps you could get free food for reading ads at the grocery store! Want a shirt, a car? Carry somebody's ad on it and get it for free! With enough ad subsidies, maybe we could all live for free! Philippe contrasted this concept with what major designers have achieved: they get people to pay extra to wear (ordinary) clothing that has their CK or Hilfiger logo on it. What a business model -- if only we could all pull it off!

Back to the office, Philippe pointed out that the Internet is currently just a little porthole to the outside world -- it really has not freed workers from the physical limits of their cubicles. It's an escape vehicle, not a true liberator. The next natural step in the evolution is wireless, which will allow people to do whatever they want do to from wherever they want to be.

A major challenge for wireless is infrastructure. First, wireless devices need to be small and compact in order to be sufficiently portable, so the bulk of the processing needs to take place on the server side. Currently, even the infrastructure for cellular phones is far from comprehensive; the U.S. has vast regions with low population density, and there are even areas within a 30-minute drive of Silicon Valley that have no coverage. Another big challenge is standardization; devices that work in Europe and Japan (where high population density encouraged development of standards) do not work in the U.S., where there are currrently multiple incompatible systems in competition for customers.

Thus, mobile workers need to plan ahead to make sure they've got the right equipment for wherever they're going. Philippe believes this obstacle that must be removed in order for wireless Internet devices to really proliferate. Getting your devices together for the day should be no more involved than choosing your clothes for the day.

So-called "third-generation networks" are supposed to provide crossover compatibility, but even if that promise is delivered, there still remains the coverage problem. Philippe told of a wireless conference in Monterey where he challenged the audience to provide a stock quote. They all confidently reached for their various wireless devices, only to find that they had no signal. The best anyone was able to do was provide a quote from the prior day's newspaper -- not too impressive.

As for the devices themselves, there are two philosophies: cram everything into one do-it-all device (the "Swiss-Army-Knife" approach of Windows CE), or use multiple, compact, task-specific devices that can intercommunicate (such as those using BlueTooth technology). The latter approach is feasible because field workers are typically content consumers rather than content publishers, so the bulky parts of the system can stay on the server side.

The proliferation of Internet devices will have interesting effects on language. Philippe believes that English will grow in importance as long as text remains the primary medium of communication on the Internet. However, he foresees graphics becoming more ubiquitous as available bandwidth increases and as the need to overcome language barriers increases. He envisions the Internet becoming photojournalistic, with profound impacts on how and what we communicate. (Consider the impact of the Rodney King videotape and footage from Vietnam.)

At this point, Phillipe took questions from the audience.

Q: What is your vision on broadband communications, especially in a wireless world?

A: The challenge is to do it on existing networks. No matter how much bandwidth becomes available, it will get used up, so small, fast programs will always be valued. It doesn't make sense to use up microprocessor power moving pixels around on a wireless device. And we shouldn't forget that new technologies are not always better solutions; MP3 isn't even close to delivering the bandwidth and quality that good old broadcast radio does.

Q: How soon will wireless proliferate -- 12 months or 3 years?

A: In 12 months, common light tasks such as eBay transactions, stock trading, and the like will be frequently done via wireless. Next will be need-driven image transmissions: insurance photos, medical images, aviation data, etc. It's not hard to imagine a future in which your wireless devices handle all the arrangements if you miss an airplane flight -- finding and booking the next available flight, reserving a hotel, customizing your arrangements per the information in your traveler profile, and so on.

Q: What about military applications?

A. I cannot comment, other than to say that they are a great customer.

Q: Are bandwidth limitations going to be a big problem in urban areas, when you have many users simultaneously trying to send lots of data back and forth?

A: Infrastructure will continue to be a challenge and an opportunity. These problems were seen when cellular phone usage grew very rapidly, and we still don't have an ideal system. But remember that average users won't be using up that much bandwidth; they'll be managing stocks, checking e-mail, and other tasks that are light on the client side.

Q: When will Bluetooth take off?

A: Bluetooth (named after a 10th century Danish king), a well-accepted standard established by Ericsson, provides a means for devices to communicate without cables. Basically, a chip carries the protocols for low-power radio communication, with a range of about 10 m. We can expect to see the technology appearing on Intel devices, digital cameras, etc. One fact of physics that may limit its expansion is that transmitting radio uses a lot more power than receiving it.

Q: Some say WAP is dead -- is that true?

A: Idiots are everywhere. The Wireless Application Protocol (WAP) is alive for small devices, mainly cell phones.

Q: Do you foresee voice-enabled devices?

A: What killed voice-enabling technologies was Dilbert's cubicle; nobody wanted anyone to overhear what they were doing while pretending to work on spreadsheets. If this issue goes away, we may see voice-enabling again.

Q: When can we expect to have constant access (for example, on airplanes)?

A: Again, there are major technical challenges. An airplane is a big faradaic cage, and when you put 400 wireless devices in it, you're bound to get some serious interference. Avionics rely on radio signals, which is why the airlines currently do not allow portable transmitting devices to be used on airplanes.

Q: In countries where wireless infrastructure precedes land lines, how is usage different?

A: My hypothesis is that systems evolve through their users. Clearly, wireless makes more sense if you haven't already dug post holes and strung wires. However, we do not yet know if saturating the planet with radio-frequency waves will have negative effects on us or our environment.

Q: Will having too many small devices (Bluetooth rather than Windows CE) be a hassle?

A: It's not a big problem for me yet. If it gets to be a problem, that will create an opportunity. As in all of this, the bottom line is that the business models and market forces will drive what happens.

# # #

By Jim Schibler, senior technical marketer and co-chair of the SD Forum Marketing SIG. Jim can be contacted via jimschibler@home.com .

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