ECMgt.com: Jun2000: Volume 2, Issue 6 - Wireless Applications Become More Common

Subject: Wireless Applications Become More Common

• Jul'00 Survey Question (http://ecmgt.com/Jun2000)
• Wireless Applications Become More Common by Mitchell Levy (http://ecmgt.com/Jun2000/management.perspective.htm)
• Sponsors (Web Value Creation Conference, Online Affiliates Conference, Etail2000 Conference, ECMsym.com Symposium, WorkZ.com) (http://ecmgt.com/Jun2000/sponsors.htm)
• M-Commerce Drivers by Veronica Williams  (http://ecmgt.com/Jun2000/feature.article.htm)
• Wireless Internet Now - Transcribed talk by Philippe Kahn (http://ecmgt.com/Jun2000/feature.article2.htm)
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Computer driven e-commerce may be a fixation in the United States, but in the rest of the world, mobile phones are the customer's preferred medium for getting information, conducting financial transactions, and electronically scheduling their affairs. The growth of the Internet and wireless connectivity creates the possibility of accessing applications, information, and commerce from almost anywhere. Wireless commerce is being driven by the move to a completely digital spectrum - the convergence of wireless devices, cell phones, PDAs and with mobile data and Internet services - which is blurring the distinction between computing and telephony.

The sheer size of the opportunity is enormous. The number of Internet-enabled mobile devices will exceed the number of PCs by 2003, with the Gartner Group estimating more than 1 billion mobile devices in use by that date. Yankee Group predicts that by 2004, more than 30% of all wireless users will access the Internet through mobile devices. In Europe, where the magic number of 30% user adoption of cell phones has already been reached, 10% of the adult population will be mobile Internet users. Dollar spend on mobile e-commerce services will rise to over $200 billion in 2005.

Mobile commerce, known as m-commerce, is gradually arriving in the United States, where it trails Europe and Asia by two years. Of the 500 million projected mobile e-commerce customers in 2005, only 22% (100 million) will be in North America; Western Europe and Asia will account for two-thirds of users, and Latin America over one-tenth. Half of all European mobile users will be connected to the Internet by 2001. From a dollars and cents perspective, within three years 10 percent of the world's sales transactions are expected to be done through Internet e-commerce. With experts predicting of one billion Web enabled mobile phones in use by 2002, these devices will be the most common method to reach the Internet - and to conduct e-commerce. M-commerce growth rates are projected to be 100% per year, and by 2003, wireless E-Business market will reach 66 Billion dollars.

Consumer behavior and business customers are rapidly evolving from a wired to a wireless world, which will profoundly impact e-business strategies. The rapid pace of business today requires business critical information regardless of location. Knowledge workers and the Internet generation expect instant access to information.

Mobile e-commerce will work best in areas where it can emphasize the core virtues of wireless networks: convenience, personalization, and location. Driving all this is the idea that putting the Internet in the palm of your hand will give business professionals and consumers alike ever-increasing access to data and information, forcing e-business and web commerce strategists to rethink and redesign their e-business process. The job of organizing, managing and targeting web content for delivery to wireless devices and transactions for different market segments has become much more challenging. Issues include design for mobile touch points, mobile interactive marketing, and different languages. Heavy investments in dynamic content management and configuration tools will be required to meet these needs, including rapid and real-time data mining for direct marketing to a mobile, transactive customer base.

Growth of m-commerce will require alliances among large telecommunications firms, financial services providers, and content providers. Telecommunications providers representing 95% of 100 million subscribers have pledged support for WAP, the Wireless Access Protocol that gives mobile phones access to Web content. The success of m-commerce will hinge on four critical requirements: reliability, availability, performance, and security.

Technology initiatives also include the Wireless Point to Point Network, a high speed WLAN technology allowing companies to create LANs without wires or cables, and the End-to-End Enterprise Wireless Initiative. Motorola created the Bluetooth Special Interest Group (SIG), which includes Nokia, Motorola, Ericsson, and Phone.com, as well as a new alliance with Sun, iPlanet, and Palm Computing. Using Palm OS enabled handhelds as the client, and iPlanet Software on Sun hardware as server, mobile professionals can gain access to corporate applications and data.

Palm Computing, the IPO spin off of US based 3COM, has positioned the Palm device and myriad software programs to access corporate information, including legacy data, through wireless and connected networks. Here mobile data equals mobile commerce for sales force automation, inventory control, and extending to the devices used ubiquitously by Federal Express and UPS. Handset providers Nokia, Ericsson, and Motorola can barely keep up with demand. As mobile service revenues plunge from heated competition, operators including Sonera in Finland and BT Cellnet in the United Kingdom are managing their own portals to retain a bigger chunk of the revenues. In an effort to take on the Palm-dominated PDA market, Microsoft launched its Pocket PC operating system for handheld devices. Meanwhile, Palm itself allied with auto supplier Delphi Automotive Systems to produce technology enabling Palm users to access their devices via voice recognition systems in their cars.

The biggest force in m-commerce is Vodafone AirTouch, which is to the wireless world what MCI WorldCom is to fixed line in the United States. In the "post-PC world", giants such as Microsoft, AOL, Vodafone AirTouch, and handset manufacturers Nokia and Ericsson have partnered with financial services firm MeritaNordbanken (Finnish Swedish Bank) to coordinate wireless financial transactions. VISA International has become a member of the Wireless Application protocol (WAP) forum, where it has helped pioneer SETTM, a transaction technology using SET (Secure Electronic Transaction) for wireless e-commerce.

Consumer services include one-way notification for news, sports, weather, and stock quotes. Typical transactions include credit and debit card payments through cell phones, shopping for music, books, and theatre tickets, and most importantly, stock trading. It is estimated that in 5 years, half of all day stock trades will be conducted from mobile phones. In the United States, Amazon.com has already negotiated with Bell Atlantic Mobile and Sprint PCS to offer site access to wireless customers. Barnesandnoble.com is getting into the burgeoning mobile e-commerce game by expanding their "On the Go" program to lets users shop and search for books, music and software, then locate and contact the closest Barnes & Noble stores.

"On the Go" is free of charge to customers and can be accessed from the Sprint PCS wireless Web. "We see enormous potential for the wireless market, as industry analysts project that the number of Net-enabled wireless devices will surpass the number of PCs connected to the Internet by the year 2003," B&N.com spokesman Carl Rosendorf said.

Mobile marketing is also a very interesting niche - because consumers will personalize their (wireless) portal to receive only the kind of information they want, creating a very powerful driver for one-to-one marketing. Mobile operators can track calling patterns, and with eventual precision in positioning technology, will know where users are any time of the day. Can you envision"instant ice cream discounts" when you’re within a mile of Baskin Robbins?

Given the explosive growth of cell phones worldwide, the push for wireless networks in Europe and Asia, and the keen desire for e-commerce by mobile users, m-commerce is just beginning to take off. Just as many businesses were only beginning to grasp the importance of e-commerce in the new economy, m-commerce adds a whole new twist. Will an existing player become the dominant player in wireless space, or is tomorrow’s leader still below the radar? Likely winners will be alliances of financial firms, (banking), telecommunications, and technology players Ericsson, Motorola, and Nokia.

Amazon - <http://www.amazon.com/>
Ameritrade - <http://www.ameritrade.com/>
America Online - http://www.aol.com/
BarPoint - http://www.barpoint.com/
Bell Atlantic - <http://www.bellatlantic.com/>
Bell South Wireless Data - http://www.bellsouthwd.com/
China Mobile - <http://www.chinamobile.com/>
Ericsson - <http://www.ericsson.com/>
Fujitsu - http://www.fujitsu.com/
KPN - <http://www.kpn.com/>
MasterCard - <http://www.mastercard.com/>
Matsushita/Panasonic - http://www.panasonic.com/
MeritaNordbanken - <http://www.meritanordbanken.com/>
Microsoft - <http://www.microsoft.com/>
Motorola - <http://www.motorola.com/>
NEC - http://www.nec.com/
Nextel - <http://www.nextel.com/>
Nokia - <http://www.nokia.com/>
NTT Mobile Communications Network - <http://www.ntt.com/>
Oracle - <http://www.oracle.com/>
OracleMobile - http://www.oraclemobile.com/
Ovum - (Mobile E-Commerce Market Strategies)
<http://www.ovum.com/>
Palm Computing - http://www.palm.com/
Phone.com - <http://www.phone.com/>
Research in Motion - <http://www.rim.net/>
Samsung - <http://www.samsung.com/>
Sharp - <http://www.sharp-usa.com/>
Sony - http://www.sony.com/
Sprint - <http://www.sprint.com/>
Symbian - <http://www.symbian.com/>
Telecordia - <http://www.telecordia.com/>
Vodafone Air Touch - http://www.vodafone.com/
VISA - <http://www.visa.com/>

Let me leave you with a few of my favorite quotes this month:

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I don't think this US will catch up this year. The infrastructure for mobile communication in Europe is much more standardized on a country level and even on European level. And prices are still getting cheaper and cheaper.
(P.B., Hoogeveen, NETHERLANDS)

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In the near future: Voice enabled Internet access will become more mainstream. This will do away with the annoyingly small numeric keypad-turned-keyboard on mobile phones. More and more e-commerce sites will become m-commerce enabled, making the sites more accessible. (Parijat Gandhi, Beyond Interactive, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA)

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Swiss-based SWATCH will bring this year a watch on the market with integrated cell phone. Everything goes in a direction of an all-in-one tool, a kind of the "Swiss army knife of the new century" with watch, cellphone, e-mail, voicemail, outlook, credit card, smartmoney, passport, drivers licence, skipass, 49ers season ticket all in one.... but at the end the result, at least in the wired parts of this world will be a multi-channel, wireless Internet and wired Internet.
(Rolf Scherrer, San Jose, California, USA)

***
What I think about with this kind of wireless integration, though, is that while we're busy "untethering" in our 24/7/365 world, we are moving towards being *always* reachable. That's a tether of a different color.; ) Liberation to go anywhere and do anything may not be all it's cracked up to be, if the business culture doesn't keep up with the social implications inherent in that.
(JP, Santa Monica, California, USA)

I hope you enjoy this eZine.

See you in cyberspace,

Mitchell Levy

President, ECnow.com <http://ecnow.com>
Executive Producer, ECMgt.com <http://ECMgt.com> 
Founder and Coordinator, SJSU-PD ECM Certificate Program <http://ecmtraining.com/sjsu>
Chair, ECMsym.com Symposium (Oct 4-5, 2000) <http://ecmsym.com>

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THE IMPACT OF WIRELESS TECHNOLOGY ON THE WORLD OF FINANCE

The concept is: what is it worth to have information available to you now rather than later? In other words, if you knew about the America On-Line / Time Warner deal minutes after it was announced, and were able to execute a trade within seconds of receiving that information, how much would it have been worth to you? That example illustrates the time value of information....and wireless computing solutions make near real-time information available today.

ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES?

As the functional capabilities made possible by wireless and mobile technologies take hold, we will see improved cash management applications as well as more accurate financial projection systems. Producers will integrate their distributors and retailers into their planning, manufacturing and accounting process as they automate the ability to help define future products, order existing product and pay for those orders. By capturing, tracking and analyzing the information from these processes, manufacturers will be in a position to improve the supply chain management process. Likewise, companies and individuals who use IT systems that employ wireless and mobile technologies will be better equipped to manage their portfolios while concurrently optimizing their cash positions. They will be able to move e-cash from one account to another, converting currency when it is most advantageous, and moving in and out of positions expeditiously to maximize their portfolio value. Indeed, the future of e-commerce is truly exciting. The future is in our hands. Future applications are only limited by the creativity of customers who dream of solutions and vendors who seek to deliver them. As Albert Einstein once said, "Imagination is more important than knowledge. "

Veronica Williams is the Founder of DiscoverIT, an education business that delivers conferences, pavilions and training courses to help IT professionals, business executives and consumers to stay abreast of technology. Ms. Williams has authored numerous articles as well as the internationally acclaimed book Wireless Computing Primer. She is recognized as an international authority on business and technology and is featured in the book entitled Women Who Mean Business, published by William Morrow & Company in July 1999. Ms. Williams serves as an advisor, judge, instructor and speaker at business and technology conferences including COMDEX, the Consumer Electronics Show and Inc. magazine's CEO Symposium. She holds a B.A. in Economics from Brandeis University and an M.B.A. from the J.L. Kellogg Graduate School of Management at Northwestern University.

Wireless Internet Now!
Transcribed talk by Philippe Kahn

The March meeting of the International SIG had a special guest speaker: Philippe Kahn, whose credits include CEO of Starfish Software, Chairman of LightSurf and OpenGrid, founder of Borland International, and more. Philippe had the audience hanging on his every word as he described his vision of the future of the wireless market, and he peppered the talk with colorful descriptions and scenarios that everyone could relate to.

Philippe opened by pointing out that 5 years ago, there was no interest in wireless Internet devices, but interest is now building. He sees wireless Internet as the next step in a natural evolution.

10 years ago, office work was a Dilbert cartoon: you'd sit in your cubicle making entries into your word processor and spreadsheet, and pretend that you were being productive. The PC kept you chained to your cubicle, and you really had no view beyond it. The advent of e-mail opened things up a bit; you could get some contact with people outside your buildings, if your messages didn't get trapped at the firewall. But once a browser came in, it changed the dynamics entirely by providing a limitless window to the outside world.

Skirting the firewall was an important liberating step. Browser-based e-mail allowed people to bypass the corporate e-mail system and send anything to anyone. AOL broke into the corporate domain by supporting TCP/IP addressing, which allowed it to get past the firewalls without being rejected. This is one key reason this struggling little startup was able to grow fast enough to be able to swallow a media giant like Time-Warner. (Hint to dot.coms: don't be too eager to show a profit, because from then on your performance can and will be measured!)

The web helped make prisoners of the cubicle feel more liberated. Now the Dilbert model was modified: you'd pretend to do your word processing and spreadsheets while managing stocks, shopping on Amazon, and trading on eBay. There was little fear of being fired for it, because your boss was doing it too, and even coming to you for advice on how to use the web!

The Internet has certainly fostered some interesting business models. Philippe talked about going into the Safeway at 2 a.m. (when all the employees of startups buy their groceries) and pondering the ad on the bar that separated his order from another on the conveyor belt. If you can get free e-mail or free Internet access just for putting up with banner ads, perhaps you could get free food for reading ads at the grocery store! Want a shirt, a car? Carry somebody's ad on it and get it for free! With enough ad subsidies, maybe we could all live for free! Philippe contrasted this concept with what major designers have achieved: they get people to pay extra to wear (ordinary) clothing that has their CK or Hilfiger logo on it. What a business model -- if only we could all pull it off!

Back to the office, Philippe pointed out that the Internet is currently just a little porthole to the outside world -- it really has not freed workers from the physical limits of their cubicles. It's an escape vehicle, not a true liberator. The next natural step in the evolution is wireless, which will allow people to do whatever they want do to from wherever they want to be.

A major challenge for wireless is infrastructure. First, wireless devices need to be small and compact in order to be sufficiently portable, so the bulk of the processing needs to take place on the server side. Currently, even the infrastructure for cellular phones is far from comprehensive; the U.S. has vast regions with low population density, and there are even areas within a 30-minute drive of Silicon Valley that have no coverage. Another big challenge is standardization; devices that work in Europe and Japan (where high population density encouraged development of standards) do not work in the U.S., where there are currrently multiple incompatible systems in competition for customers.

Thus, mobile workers need to plan ahead to make sure they've got the right equipment for wherever they're going. Philippe believes this obstacle that must be removed in order for wireless Internet devices to really proliferate. Getting your devices together for the day should be no more involved than choosing your clothes for the day.

So-called "third-generation networks" are supposed to provide crossover compatibility, but even if that promise is delivered, there still remains the coverage problem. Philippe told of a wireless conference in Monterey where he challenged the audience to provide a stock quote. They all confidently reached for their various wireless devices, only to find that they had no signal. The best anyone was able to do was provide a quote from the prior day's newspaper -- not too impressive.

As for the devices themselves, there are two philosophies: cram everything into one do-it-all device (the "Swiss-Army-Knife" approach of Windows CE), or use multiple, compact, task-specific devices that can intercommunicate (such as those using BlueTooth technology). The latter approach is feasible because field workers are typically content consumers rather than content publishers, so the bulky parts of the system can stay on the server side.

The proliferation of Internet devices will have interesting effects on language. Philippe believes that English will grow in importance as long as text remains the primary medium of communication on the Internet. However, he foresees graphics becoming more ubiquitous as available bandwidth increases and as the need to overcome language barriers increases. He envisions the Internet becoming photojournalistic, with profound impacts on how and what we communicate. (Consider the impact of the Rodney King videotape and footage from Vietnam.)

At this point, Phillipe took questions from the audience.

Q: What is your vision on broadband communications, especially in a wireless world?

A: The challenge is to do it on existing networks. No matter how much bandwidth becomes available, it will get used up, so small, fast programs will always be valued. It doesn't make sense to use up microprocessor power moving pixels around on a wireless device. And we shouldn't forget that new technologies are not always better solutions; MP3 isn't even close to delivering the bandwidth and quality that good old broadcast radio does.

Q: How soon will wireless proliferate -- 12 months or 3 years?

A: In 12 months, common light tasks such as eBay transactions, stock trading, and the like will be frequently done via wireless. Next will be need-driven image transmissions: insurance photos, medical images, aviation data, etc. It's not hard to imagine a future in which your wireless devices handle all the arrangements if you miss an airplane flight -- finding and booking the next available flight, reserving a hotel, customizing your arrangements per the information in your traveler profile, and so on.

Q: What about military applications?

A. I cannot comment, other than to say that they are a great customer.

Q: Are bandwidth limitations going to be a big problem in urban areas, when you have many users simultaneously trying to send lots of data back and forth?

A: Infrastructure will continue to be a challenge and an opportunity. These problems were seen when cellular phone usage grew very rapidly, and we still don't have an ideal system. But remember that average users won't be using up that much bandwidth; they'll be managing stocks, checking e-mail, and other tasks that are light on the client side.

Q: When will Bluetooth take off?

A: Bluetooth (named after a 10th century Danish king), a well-accepted standard established by Ericsson, provides a means for devices to communicate without cables. Basically, a chip carries the protocols for low-power radio communication, with a range of about 10 m. We can expect to see the technology appearing on Intel devices, digital cameras, etc. One fact of physics that may limit its expansion is that transmitting radio uses a lot more power than receiving it.

Q: Some say WAP is dead -- is that true?

A: Idiots are everywhere. The Wireless Application Protocol (WAP) is alive for small devices, mainly cell phones.

Q: Do you foresee voice-enabled devices?

A: What killed voice-enabling technologies was Dilbert's cubicle; nobody wanted anyone to overhear what they were doing while pretending to work on spreadsheets. If this issue goes away, we may see voice-enabling again.

Q: When can we expect to have constant access (for example, on airplanes)?

A: Again, there are major technical challenges. An airplane is a big faradaic cage, and when you put 400 wireless devices in it, you're bound to get some serious interference. Avionics rely on radio signals, which is why the airlines currently do not allow portable transmitting devices to be used on airplanes.

Q: In countries where wireless infrastructure precedes land lines, how is usage different?

A: My hypothesis is that systems evolve through their users. Clearly, wireless makes more sense if you haven't already dug post holes and strung wires. However, we do not yet know if saturating the planet with radio-frequency waves will have negative effects on us or our environment.

Q: Will having too many small devices (Bluetooth rather than Windows CE) be a hassle?

A: It's not a big problem for me yet. If it gets to be a problem, that will create an opportunity. As in all of this, the bottom line is that the business models and market forces will drive what happens.

Our bulletin board allows readers to comment on trends and issues throughout the month. Please stop by to add your comments and see all the responses at http://ecmgt.com/bulletinboard.htm

Question of the Month

The topic for  focuses on 

Selected Answers of the Month
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The US has been seen at the front-runner in new technology although newer and sometimes better technology has evolved from Europe and Japan. The higher level of penetration regarding Internet usage in the US will positively contribute to the growth in the use of wireless technology regarding the Internet. In addition, the current strength of the dollar has placed the US in a favorable position making the adoption of newer technology (including wireless) more affordable to the general public. The current first world infrastructure of telecommunications within the US can only be of benefit to the growth of this form of access.

With the increased costs in installing and maintaining wired systems coupled with the ever increasing demand for greater bandwidth, the use of wireless technology in voice and data transmission will become more acceptable than the current so-called wired technology. The greatest concern to the wireless technology is security. With the rapid development of the technology, security and built in controls are often left to the last. This issue would need to be addressed so that the acceptance of the use of wireless technology in place of the wired technology occurs. With the increased in the use of wireless technology the associated costs will reduce making it more attractive to the so-called man in the street. This technology is already gaining acceptance in parts of the world where wired technology is not the route to follow eg. Africa.

WAP is still relatively new. Greater acceptance of this technology is to happen before users start using the technology extensively. The need for proving that the use of this technology is secure is required as many still doubt whether the technology is indeed secure. Current use wireless applications include vehicle recovery (stolen vehicle) using the GSM standard, voice and data (limited) for contactability and transfer of text messages.
(Mohsien Hassim, Johannesburg, South Africa, KPMG)

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U.S. wireless will not catch up to Europe and Japan this year. Our standards problem, and the slow-moving, entrenched (self) interests here will prevent the one thing that Europe, at least, has over us -- reliable, solid connections from the top of Scandinavia to the bottom of the Italian boot. What it looks like from this person's p.o.v.: one unified standard + reliability + semi-reasonable rates = universality. Stateside, we've got dueling standards, everyone complains (justifiably) about coverage & quality, and whether you can have the phone you want and the service you want at the same time is anybody's guess -- and from the consumer standpoint it all seems utterly arbitrary. Given that we're surrounded by slow-moving giants, I can only surmise that we'll be among the last to the 3G party, adoption-wise.

When I was in Europe last, the thing that stood out for me was the age range on the cell phone users -- when a family has it, *everyone* seems to have it - grandma, the kids, mom & dad. The really funny thing to watch is in restaurants, when a phone rings somewhere, and you get the "Is it mine?" "Is it mine?" effect, everyone looking around and grabbing someplace to see if it's theirs. That's commonplace at tradeshows & networking events for business, but seeing kids do this was kind of novel. ;)

To your wireless Internet access point, looked to me that it's still more about straight v2v communications and mobility than it is about wireless messaging apps, whether you're talking about email or SMS. Didn't see any web access via handhelds per se, though the kids *love* SMS, and the games on the phones. As I understand it, Scandinavia is really in the vanguard with the use-the-phone-to-buy-a-soda and other cell-phone-in-lieu-of-a-card-swiper apps.

Wireless technology will be incorporated into all sorts of standard business operations, in the way that Fedex & UPS have incorporated it, and 3PL, fulfillment & distribution entities have. Eventually, we'll wind up with an analogue to the Star Trek communicator.

What I think about with this kind of wireless integration, though, is that while we're busy "untethering" in our 24/7/365 world, we are moving towards being *always* reachable. That's a tether of a different color.; ) Liberation to go anywhere and do anything may not be all it's cracked up to be, if the business culture doesn't keep up with the social implications inherent in that. We could easily surrender control over when we should be and need to be offline, especially in the interests of good business.

If we manage to get the GSM thing happening in more places, we'll soon have the SMS capability of our counterparts in Europe, and that'll be fun. There's a lot going on in the Palm space, I'd look for innovation there - with GPS in my device and restaurant/movie guides, I could come out of a movie and locate nearby restaurants that are open and vice-versa, maybe even find an ATM. And there are some plays to the GenY wireless market that should pop out later this year. If Europe is any indication, that'll be very hot indeed.
(JP, Santa Monica, California, USA)

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In Switzerland, they expect, that by the end of 2000, 70% of people will have a cell phone, by the end of 2001 90%. Faster growth than everywhere else. WAP is already working and it is a very short way to m-commerce (mobile-commerce), some have already started. You need no watch, no money, no credit card... you have a smart-chip... although, SWATCH, the world biggest watchmaker (has a joint venture with HP) brings out a new watch, with an integrated phone...
(R.S., SWITZERAND) 

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I strongly believe wireless technology has a tremendous advantage over conventional connectivity. New technologies such as bluetooth, and the mobile systems offer advantages for quick connectivity for easing communications and for ease of setup. With the phasing out of address books to PDAs already using infrared technology and compatible communication with laptops and mobiles, several new inventions are brought quicker to the market as standards adopted are becoming more common to all parts of the world. It is pity that the iridium project had to fail else that was a another good technology - but seemingly too early for its time particularly in terms of cost competitiveness of mobile telephony.
(Prem Bajaj, Bombay, INDIA)

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I would make a distinction between cellular phone and more general wireless devices.

While the meaning of cellular phone is pretty obvious, I consider wireless device “the next thing”, where phone capabilities are integrated into a palm computer (or vice-versa). Cellular phone are widely used in Europe for different reasons, like:

• Pure need (Sweden, Norway …)

• Better marketing (Less expensive entry plans for the family)

• Status-symbol (i.e. Italy, where having a cellular phone is like wearing an Armani suit)

Personally I do not see US catching up quickly on the cellular phone expansion. However I see US market “jumping” quickly on “the next thing” and leading the market.

Web capability such as browsing, searching, shopping, e-mail will be done through completely wireless devices in the near future (2001). And in the meanwhile (next 6 month) we will enjoy devices based on Blue-tooth technology (www.bluetooth.com)
(A.G., Silicon Valley, California, USA)

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I definitely believe that Wireless adoption will rapidly grow, however US will have a hard time to fully catch up Europe (Western Europe) as this year US demand for cellular phones is still half way from Western Europe in terms of million users. According to a publication in Business week in the US users of cellular phone will reach 50 millions by 2001, while in Western Europe it will reach around 100 million. It is worth saying that Eastern Europe is very different as Western Europe and confusion shouldn't arrive in mixing both as the differences in cellular penetration are huge (The East might represent only 10% of Western European users).

As people become more mobile, consolidation of devices and communication tools will arrive very soon. Wireless applications represent a great opportunity to end-users to have everything 'at a hand'. As soon, as security, interactive features, and mass is reached, wireless applications will easily become a business standard.

They are so many, going back to previous questions, as soon as consolidation comes, security is solved,  and they reach critical mass, then a standard will float. Today there are several technologies available or in concept coming from several companies like Nokia (3G terminal concept), Docomo (video watch concept), Panasonic smart phone, Palm (wireless), etc. All are aiming to a consolidation of communication devices like personal info, telephone, internet (including email and commerce), camera (either like a watch or like a palm type), color screens, interactivity, on-line shopping, etc. In the case of cellular phones, the least thing they will be useful for will be to make a phone call.
(Maria Luisa Rodriguez, e-co consulting ltd., Paris-London)

***

Absolutely.  While cell phone adoption is ahead in Europe, according to Gartner, Wireless data adoption is about even between the US and Europe.  The use is very data centric and will demand access to IT applications and content anytime/anywhere.

As the devices and networks become ubiquitous, enterprises will start deploying apps on them.  E-mail will come first, then other packaged applications that are important to mobile professionals.

Cool - Real, working email is the most important app.  Today's phone-based wireless web apps are too simple, and have only limited content.  It think that we will start to see an explosion of content on the Phones and PDAs.
(David Reske, NowSpeed, Inc., Framingham, Massachusetts, USA)

***

When reading all your concerns about the wireless+ future of the US, I think you are right. It seems that the US is ahead in developing device gadgets but not in applying Ubiquitous

Computing to the business of today. With this I mean really integrating these dedicated services into the existing business and creating a fundament to build on.

What we are working on is integrating all kinds of wireless systems to a spontaneous network with Jini, Sun's technology in combination with Bluetooth. It's capable of supporting federations of service and also connected spontaneous while entering a building or car or the tennis court. Services available depending on the environment you are in.

We built a prototype for mobile workers on the road where it is easy to hook up all kind of services. The status of the mobile worker is made transparent for the client and company, its route is not fixed at the start of the day because all kinds of interferences can take place while driving that route. The route can be adapted dynamically, for instance because a customer cancels the appointment or if there is a road-block because of a car accident. The company is able to change the schedule, the driver will never notice that there was a traffic jam because he was rerouted by a navigation system.

Third parties will join the federation to provide their services like for instance McDonalds or Traffic Jam information or real estate or what so ever. Our next steps are to try to form a community so we can expand the federation of services so we can use information data not only for one particular service but reuse it for other services as well. This we will create new services were we will not be aware of right now. They will just pop up by combining services.

We already implemented Internet services on the phone with technologies :WAP ,XML and oracle (portal to go)

What we as Europeans know is that we should work together with the US because being each others rivals is a wrong philosophy. Only by joining forces we will survive. I think the US is really ahead in architectural models of what so ever. I always get my input from the US Internet sites. So don't underestimate yourself.
(K.B., NETHERLANDS)

***

I don't think this US will catch up this year. The infrastructure for mobile communication in Europe is much more standardized on a country level and even on European level. And prices are still getting cheaper and cheaper.

Wireless technology will be incorporated into all sorts of standard business operations where it is real suitable. For example the use of a HERTZ hand-terminal when you return your rental car (done within a minute). Use of a cellular phone for digital authorization in business processes (integration within the workflow system).

In the next six months we should see the cellular phone as an electronic payment system. The integration of a cellular phone with a GPS system. Integrating wireless devices in workflow processes for faster response time and for communication with employees on the road.
(P.B., Hoogeveen, NETHERLANDS)

***

Today the mobile phone, tomorrow the multi-video conference call.
(Paola Parmendola, Roma, ITALIA)

***

WAP though took of in Europe and Japan will spread along to USA and also to Asia pacific because of its accessibility and easy tools to link. Though hickups continue in these technologies, I foresee lots of utility and usage by B2B segments also G2B...
(P.M., INDIA)

***

The United States will not make a significant technological 'catch up' this year - but an increase in awareness and volume of users will provide synergy for coming years. WML is so easy to implement, I am sure wireless will be in all of our near futures.  Companies will be incorporating incentive programs to get their employee base 'connected', making for a win win for all involved.

Regarding cool applications, I like the dictionary, translation, travel directions, notification aspects and of course linking to my personal online database. Within the next six months - hard to say, probably more of the same with some collaboration applications on line. Looking a little further, I think connecting voice with data will bring many more new applications not found elsewhere.  And of course I can't wait for up to the minute traffic updates.  ;-)
(Bruce Peat, eProcess Solutions, Silver Spring, Maryland USA)

***

I lived in the U.K. from 1989-91 and I was amazed at how they were practically giving cell phones away if you signed up for the wireless service. I had just paid $1500 for a Motorola "Brick" in the U.S. prior to going to London and thought I had a deal. When I returned to the U.S. in 1991 I didn't see the price come down on Cell phones and wireless service until about 4-5 years

later. So judging from this example I would not predict in 2000, that the U.S. would "catch up" with the EC countries or the progressive Asian nations. I would estimate more in the 2001-2002 time frame.

I think wireless will certainly be incorporated into many business applications, we will become a wired world for good or bad.

I foresee all sorts of "cool" wireless apps innovations the first being apps that will allow busy execs and their staffs to better manage their travel whether by air or automobile or public transport. The integration of GPS technology with notification systems with wireless voice and data will open limitless possibilities. For example, a wireless device that could:

• Provide you voice and map directions to quickly get you to the airport
• Automatically log miles to/from the airport (for expenses)
• Tell you if flights are on time
• Plot another flight schedule for you from point A to point B and book your E-ticket for that flight

• Indicate where there is available parking in the airport facilities or provide voice directions to the car rental return.

• Tell when the next shuttle bus will arrive to pick you up based on real time transmission from the shuttle bus

• Transmit your revised flight schedule and expense items back to your Admin Asst. with a push of a button
• Tell you if that kid, that pushes on the back of your seat and crys the whole flight around the world, is on this flight

(Bill Webb, Cupertino, California, U.S.A.)

***

I am a Swiss banker working in San Jose. I just came back from a trip to Switzerland. Cellphones everywhere (in Switzerland we call them "handy"). It is expected, that cell phone penetration is over 70% in Switzerland at the end of this year.

I really do not believe that the US will catch up to Europe in the next few years due to:

·        no us-standard like GSM in the rest of the world.

• costs are much to high in the US comparing to Europe
• the US is an pc-focused country, with a big pc penetration
• the phones sold in the US are not as cool as in Europe, it is a la mode to have the coolest peace of cell phone and to send messages from everywhere (sms-service.... short message service), specially by the young population.
• the US cell phone are not state-of-the-art comparing to the phones in Europe, technologicly they are about 2 to 3 years behind

I really believe, that wireless technology will be incorporated into all sorts in business operations, think especially in Europe and Japan. Today, only 7% of the worldwide population have a pc at home. Many countries are not "wired" or not good enough that the "wired internet" can spread (india, africa for ex.), so these countries will take the "leap frog"-tactic and just jump over direct to wireless without even trying to wire the country... (unaffordable). I think, that the wireless devices are used more focused, you will not browse for hours on your WAP-phone, you just get a stock alert, because one of your stocks has hit a certain level... or in business to track, e-mail. I am not really sure that w-commerce will be a big thing (w2c), unless for really common goods or for download information.

WAP-handys are sold in Europe already, Sprint has an other standard in the US. Smartcards in your cell-phone will come sooner or later to the US. Swiss-based SWATCH will bring this year a watch on the market with integrated cell phone. Everything goes in a direction of an all-in-one tool, a kind of the "Swiss army knife of the new century" with watch, cellphone, e-mail, voicemail, outlook, credit card, smartmoney, passport, drivers licence, skipass, 49ers season ticket all in one.... but at the end the result, at least in the wired parts of this world will be a multi-channel, wireless Internet and wired Internet.
(Rolf Scherrer, San Jose, California, USA)

***

There is an example I've heard of where one can dial up a toll-free number at a vending machine and it will bill your cell phone account for the drink you wish to purchase.  I think that applications like this will be lucrative because the US market is still uncomfortable with e-cash.
(C.S., Westlake, Ohio, USA)

***

I don't think the US will catch up.  Europe had challenges for years with their restrictive communications practices.  This fostered their embrace of wireless.  In the UK everyone seems to have a mobile phone/device.  We still have incomplete coverage here in BC (mountains).

The potential is there for wireless to be incorporated into business applications.  I am waiting for the tools to appear.  What's available today is too clunky.  I have used a palm pilot and cellphone for several years.  I'd like to see those morhped into one compact unit.   That would be very useful to me to keep track of people and hardware for our 7x24 operations.

I see that Palm and Sony are talking.  The results of a partnership there could be interesting.  Apart from business use imagine a water resistant device with voice/email/internet capabilities that incorporated a GPS receiver.  Download some tide/current prediction software and go kayaking.  Throw in eChart for added value!
(P.S., Victoria, Brittish Columbia, CANADA) 

***

In the year 2000, I don't see the mobile Internet in the US to rise to the level of Europe or Japan. In the next 1-2 years the rise will be exponential but it will still take a bit of time before the carriers have internet enabled wireless networks available for common use and to handle the bandwidth of many millions of mobile device users. Because the US has such an incredible landline infrastructure there is not an immediate need to jump to wireless. In Asia Pacific and Europe there was a leap-frog effect over landlines right on to the wireless realm. This has pushed forth the mobile Iinternet use and new mobile technology development in those regions.

With the infrastructure soon in place, the US will see a rapid boom that will surpass the number of mobile Internet users in both Europe and Japan. Although we will have a larger number of users the overall reach will be smaller than countries like Finland, The Netherlands, Hong Kong, or Japan.

Wireless technology such as Bluetooth and PAN's (Personal Area Networks) will definitely be integrated into many (not all) parts of business operations. What would happen if you have a meeting this afternoon at a client site and you forgot to print out the slides, of course you can't find a disk and you lost your dongel? Using BlueTooth technology you'll just wirelessly tell your laptop to print out your notes at the closest printer. Infact, everyone elses laptop and the projector will be BlueTooth enabled and your client will follow your presentation on their own computers...All without the use of wires! This type of wireless environment will allow us to be much more efficient. We will be able to go anywhere and sync up with other devices at any time.

Personally, I think that BlueTooth will die out or change soon simply because of the short range (30m) of the networks. This infrastructure will be too much to install with technology moving so fast. There will be a supercessor that is more universal and creates a larger network. The creation of these large networks that can decipher individual wireless devices will be the end result and will really launch wireless business operations.

In the US currently there are many tools that can make a business more operational, efficient, or practical but are not used because of initial financial or time costs. This will be the same with wireless applications. The true leaders and organized companies will make the investment to ensure the long term will be more efficient. Of course, we can't forget the privacy concerns that are important to the sensitive material in an office and for these reasons the wireless technologies will take a bit longer than we want to actually become a reality.

Current Hardware: SMS enabled phones and alphanumeric pagers, WAP-enabled phones, PDA's, Windows CE devices, Pocket PC's

Current Applications: Being able to check driving directions (MapQuest.com), purchase theatre tickets (Ticketmaster.com), find restaurants in a new city (RestaurantRow.com), or purchase books (Amazon.com) are all some of the coolest things going on the mobile internet right now.

In the near future: Voice enabled Internet access will become more mainstream. This will do away with the annoyingly small numeric keypad-turned-keyboard on mobile phones. More and more e-commerce sites will become m-commerce enabled, making the sites more accessible. Advertisements will become much more personal by tapping into your personal notebooks and offering discounts or incentives based on your own schedule. If an advertiser knows you haven't had a haircut for 6 weeks then Vidal Sassoon will send you a personal message that offers a discount at their salon.
(Parijat Gandhi, Beyond Interactive, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA)

***

Rapid Adoption in 2000 in U.S.  No, the applications will not be as rapid as one may think.  For several reasons, that are actually detrimental to e-Business. One the U.S. has an enormous infrastructure invested for non-mobile computing.  Literally, there are millions of pages of webpages-designed and functioning that require high-speed bandwidth and would not be compatible with small wireless displays on cell type /pda/palm devices.  Remember the html code depends upon the browser. Therefore a good user interface perhaps with xml type code needs to be provided.

Cell phone technology currently does not support much bandwidth. Europe has bandwidth, but they are running out of URLs with their plans to RF tag everything. In Europe, they are talking about the ubiquitous or 'disappearing computer".  The European view is a tie-in with the GPS so they essentially will have RF-ID tags on everything objects as well as people.  There are early adoptors as we know it, but applications are needed for enterprise and b2b areas. For Eal adoption REAL time and location problems must be solved.

One problem area needing some solutions might be in construction.  For example projects where an onsite construction superintendent might be able to call in a website an ERP type app. to find out when his R-Bar is coming , which would automatically interface to the vendor's order status page to see when the r-bar will arrive.  Perhaps the GPS can locate shipment and relay info to the contractor.  Need something that is both time-critical and location critical.

The cool application attracting attention will be the gadget guy who needs to check his stock prices and do his trades via wireless on the fly.  Pity, airlines do not allow operation of cell devices in flight--have to go through their ATT system. The Oracles, SAPs combined with the Nortels, Lucents Nokias, will be the big players pouring money, buying technology companies, investing in infrastucture to make this happen. 
(H.C., Silicon Valley, California, USA)

***

Wireless applications - business: I can see tremendous potential for business, especially with the increasing demand for real-time service for the customer.

Applications:   Customer profiles available through wireless, this is especially important when enroute for face to face meetings (still an essential component in customer and business relations)

Past customer orders: tracking the purchase trends of your customers

Customer specifications for complex design requirements: data available in real-time, updatable and communicated back to the design center or shop floor immediately.

Financial sector: track what is happening in stock markets, or what analysts are projecting in specific sectors - helps businesses stay absolutely current with the missiles coming over the horizon and can keep tactical planning and operational management current.

Selective about information: Wireless technology will help businesses with all the information noise.  You can identify and set up the types of information you need to monitor, analyze it and distribute throughout organization far more efficiently because you don't have the burdens of typical information hardware (PCs, notebooks, etc.).

Streamline systems: businesses are loosing ground because of complex information and operational processes.  Wireless applications enable greater human interaction, problem solving, and provide an essential tool to simply complex, cobbled information systems. 

Big Benefit:  Enables the business person, and the business to travel lite and go fast - minutes are $$. Another sector where wireless can achieve major savings that we would all like is Government. The applications are unlimited:

Fish and Wildlife: able to work remotely, without a lot of files and upload and move information around easily - processing data is done at the office site, rather than in the field - enables staff to have more time to do the "work"

Health Care: your virtual office can go with you when you visit patients - patient or family files updated on the spot, rather than waiting for the professional to get back to the office, update the file, the file gets lost, etc.  Eliminates service bottlenecks.

Building Safety: Inspectors can get out to the building site and have all the information they need about a building at their finger tips, they can determine equivalencies or access latest product or building code advisories and work with the builder to keep the project moving forward efficiently.

Cool wireless applications include multi-media streaming via wireless.
(J.M., Victoria, Brittish Columbia, CANADA)

***
I do not think US will catch up to EU in wireless in 2000. Too many other alternatives. Eventually, if fiber does not provide the main link, wireless will grow beyond cell phones. As it now stands, wireless just seems too small a slice of the communications aps to grow dramatically.
(A.L.)

***
I believe that the U.S population is becoming used to "virtual" money made possible by wireless communications. With the steady increase of vendors (from dry cleaners to gas stations) who allow purchases via an ATM card this may eventually become the standard method of payment.

(L.F., Sunnyvale, CA, USA)

***
Not too many people have PC in Japan while it's completely opposite here in the US. Cell phone is the next alternative if you want to go on-line or get email from your friend. US needs a break-through technology, in other words, we need a hot product to make it fly.

There are three or more cell phone systems in the world now. Until they have a standard system with a tight security then it will definitely works in business. I think the future is voice command, Microsoft is spending tons of money in this field. Imagine every cell phone has a Windows voice command, wow!!
(J.Y)

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