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- Peer
to peer technologies become significant in the B2B landscape.
- Lack
of qualified personnel impacts growth prospects.
- Business
climate remains skeptical of hype, and easy money stays away from the space
- We
begin the slow work of integration with business processes
- Wireless
and mobile devices become mainstream for business use (not just for watching stock
drop...)
- Interoperability will be
seen as critical to successful participation
(Mark
Resch, President and CEO, CommerceNet) *****
eCommerce/eBusiness Predictions For 2001
- "Back to Basics" The year 2000 was a volatile
year for eBusiness. The world witnessed the dot-com meltdown and the realization
that many B2B models and practices were not mature enough to support collaborative
business across the Internet. In a rush to be Internet ready, some organizations
ignored the complexity and difficulty of integrating business processes across
their extended supply chains. They were also too optimistic about the technical
capability of their infrastructures to support complex business process integration.
2001 will be a year of reality. Getting back to basics means that analyzing business
goals and objectives, understanding customers and markets and assessing operational/technical
readiness to support new eBusiness initiatives will be a top priority for every
organization.
- "Integration - what's
legacy in 2001" We'll begin to see organizations realize that the ERP systems
of the 90's are not the eBusiness systems of the 21st century and that a secure
platform is critical to tightly integrate all components into a viable eBusiness
application.
- "B2B/eMarkets - the
quick and the dead" Any business that is not into eBusiness is going to go out
of business. B2B survivors will continue to enhance their business processes by
integrating intelligent services from knowledge management and business intelligence.
This will deliver enhanced services such at catalog management and aggregation,
demand and supply forecasting, inventory and stock prediction, best path logistics,
etc.
- "Small enough to carry, yet
powerful enough to conduct business" Handheld wireless devices will play an integral
role in certain elements of eBusiness (Quality-Control checks, inspections, authorization,
etc). Mobile eBusiness and the dependence on new devices will begin to require
flexible application development and management solutions. For trust and privacy,
we will see security extend into the wireless world, scaling to meet new demands
and emerging standards.
- "Internet
Management - Best effort to guaranteed Quality of Service" Systems and Network
Management of eBusiness means ensuring the availability of business applications
from all business perspectives. These will include: performance, responsiveness,
guaranteed 'end-user experience' and quality-of-service.
- "Personalization...the
next generation" Dynamic Intelligent personalization will become a requirement
in 2001. Not only customizing a system according to end-use requirements, but
also using techniques such as business intelligence, predictive analysis and advanced
visualizations will be used more frequently to enhance the end-user experience.
- "2001 Portal - The window to the
business" The business portal of 2001 and beyond will incorporate knowledge of
multiple data sources and will provide business intelligence through advanced
techniques such as artificial intelligence, business forecasting and prediction.
- "Storage - Managing the Mountain"
There will be more data to manage across diverse networks technologies and infrastructures.
Hardware and SAN's, backed by scalable heterogeneous software solutions will be
mandatory.
- "Supplier push to a Customer
Centric Philosophy - Intelligent CRM" Providing an organization with the information
and processes necessary to know their customers, understand their needs, and effectively
build relationships is the basis of good CRM. In the coming year, we'll notice
a development of a new breed of customer-centric solutions, incorporating Human-Touch,
value-added portal services (analytical/reporting tools and prediction).
- "Security
- new challenges, new opportunities" As commerce extends beyond normal IT boundaries,
there'll be new challenges: More users to manage, more applications to protect,
shared resources, mobile transactions. Security needs to combine new defense techniques
whilst extending business potential through registration services, access control
and certificate schemes.
(Kenneth
F. Fitzpatrick, General Manager, Global Marketing Computer Associates International,
Inc.) ***** It's
only going to get uglier. All those choices are going to get narrower and first
to market will only mean you opened the door for the best to come. If you're not
the best choice, best product, best service, you'll be last. And best will only
last as long as your next version can be introduced. (Aaron
Heinrich, VP, Niewhaus, Ryan, Wong PR) *****
I predict a major restructuring in the area of
agricultural business-to-business exchanges. With the partnerships, mergers, and
acquisitions to come, many of the companies we've heard and read about will disappear.
Those that remain will have to prove their worth for their members through exceptional
technology, strong partnerships, and the ability to change quickly. (Gordon
Hunt, Executive Vice President, eFruit International) *****
- Business process understanding and industry
specific content to drive commerce will add more value than pure technology.
- Transaction
fees -- especially for indirect material transactions -- will begin to fade *
2001 will mark the rise of collaborative commerce applications, closely linking
the relationship between buyers and suppliers.
- The
IPO market will slowly return by the beginning of 2Q01 and will be relatively
healthy by the end of Q301 (but nothing like 3Q99 through 1Q00).
- 90%
of vertical markets / consortia exchanges will slowly fade away due to lack of
liquidity and market traction.
- Private
marketplaces and private trading hubs will emerge but will have little commerce
volume in their early life.
(Jason
Busch, Manager, Business Development, FreeMarkets) *****
- Peer-to-Peer Commerce: Individuals being
able to share a file from any computer, whether from a broadband connection or
a dialup, wireless or not, fixed IP or not, and allow any other users to simply
click-and-download or drag-and-drop the content to their local drive (or any other)
and be automatically charged without a heavyweight e-commerce & credit card
transaction server on their desktop.
- Tie
in of micropayment settlement through existing phone, electric, gas, water, etc.
bills.
- Phone as a mobile commerce
credit card & use of CC numbers locally at pay points.
- Rise
of the "electronic payment device"--E-commerce in 2001 won't be electronic, it'll
be a physical device that's either a super-smart credit card plus wireless, a
tollroad fast-track device that can be used at other establishments (like McDonalds)
or a key chain gas pump payment device that can be used at other establishments.
Looks for the battle of the devices to see what form factor consumers want most.
(Gregory Alan Bolcer)
***** - The
convergence of data comms and telecomms through the use of standards like Bluetooth
and WAP. Whether WAP will survive the onslaught of Bluetooth -we will have to
see
- CRM is going to become one of
the crucial factors in the success of any company as customers are becoming more
sophisticated and demanding. The one-to-one relationship trend will become ever
important
- Security around information.
The media attention of well known sites that were hacked during 2000 has triggered
a wave of concern amongst many regarding the safety and security of information
stored on the data warehouses of many corporations. The hacking that Microsoft
is currently undergoing has placed concern in the hearts of organisations that
use MS products (almost everyone)
- The
project management skills of new EC start ups. With poor project management and
planning chances of success is questionable.
- The
strategy of the EC venture - has the strategy been drawn up with proper thought
and does it encompass technology as part of the business as opposed to seeing
technology as a mere tool.
- Business
Continuity Management - how to appropriately react to downed systems- the disaster
recovery plans have to extend well beyond typical systems
- The
human capital element - how do successful companies recruit and keep their talent
8- The markets reaction to the devaluation of tech stocks - this may have a serious
impact on new startups that want to attract potential investors.
(Mohsien
Hassim, Manager, Ernst & Young, UK) *****
2001 Prognostications - It
will be possible to rig your home with a camera that will only unlock your front
door and let you in the house after verifying your face.
- People
will see TV set top boxes that ask them what they would like to watch and personalize
their channels for them. They will also be able to interact with family members
across the television with the increased bandwidths and advancements in data flows.
- People will begin using smart cards
(American Express, MasterCard and Visa International have introduced smart cards
in the past year) for multiple purposes - like an Epurse, containing money and
pertinent cardholder information, from measurements for your custom Levis jeans
to personal digital signature protected by biometrics.
- Cars
will have a service that alerts drivers to traffic patterns and suggest alternative
routes. People will also be able to order a pizza from their car on the way home
from work and have it ready and paid for by the time they get to the pizza shop.
- Webcams, microphones and fingerprint
scanners will become standard features on computers, allowing for biometric protection
of desktop and portable computers.
- Identity
theft will be a prevalent concern - biometrics and PKI will become mainstream
security options as individuals and organizations strive to protect their identity.
(Vernoque Wittebolle, Executive
Vice President, Keyware) ***** 2001
is going to be a very difficult year. The year of the truth. At the end of 2001
we will probably see the dot.coms which will survive in the long run. Along that
way there will be a lot of businesses which will go out of business. Difficult
times for e.g. Webvan or etoys and many others around the world. (Patrick
Stark) ***** I
think that a lot of attention needs to go to integration of several e-commerce
platforms in the B2B distribution sector. All big players have set-up e-commerce
activities: 1) sellers push: They want to sell their products and have an e-commerce
site using platform A. 2) buyers pull: they have set-up an e-commerce site (where
all their suppliers can post their products) using platform B. 3) Integrators
bring them together: unfortunately on platform C. At the end, they all have to
communicate. Or e-commerce will not deliver the cost savings that it has promised.
And it will die. (Lowie Van Rymenant)
Back
to the main ECMgt.com Page (http://ECMgt.com)
Back to this issue:
(http://ECMgt.com/Jan2001)
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